Ups and Downs

I've calculated out that I need to average 5 SnG's a night at the $4.10 Knockout level to be able to attain the first increment of the bonus. I've been doing just that, and I'm on track, with 90 out of 200 point accumulated so far.

This past weekend was wonderful - in the SnG's I managed to put myself up $20, plus I did reasonably well at cash too. My bankroll advanced to $156 overall! How fast it climbs!!

Last night though, I played 6 SnG's, and only placed 3rd in one... So the bankroll has retreated to $139. How fast it falls....

I wish I could play at a higher BI to accelerate the point accumulation, but already, a bankroll of $139 makes a $4.1 Buy in quite volotile as you can see. Going to the next level at $6.75 would really make it swing out of control.

If I were to follow Phil Shaw's advise, then I would have to have 60 buy-ins. That would mean I would need $246 to be playing at the level I'm playing now. By extension, I should be playing the lower level of $1.4.

Shaw's advise seems sound, as a $20 swing at $246 wouldn't impact me at all. However, if I experience another dip of $20 from my current BR of $139 down to $119, I have to seriously consider moving down. And unfortunately, that $20 downswing is currently just 5 buy-ins away.

The reason I'm going to continue playing at this level though is related to rake percentage. The rake rate at $4.1 is 8.5%, which is far more reasonable than the $1.4 rate of 10.7%. The next level of $6.75 has a rate of 7.4%, but as discussed, the variance at $6.75 is much too high for my bankroll to handle right now. Upper levels after this remain at 7.4%, so there is nothing gained in terms of rake rate by moving up further than this.

In conclusion then, I'll be a little fast and loose with the buy-ins for bankroll requirements at these lower levels just to get my win rate up, given the lower rake percentage. however, as I approach the $6.75 level, I will tighten up those bankroll requirements, and require a 60 buy-in rate for anything above that.

I think this is a reasonable way to approach building a bankroll, as I am confident that I have a long term positive win rate that exceeds the rate percentage.